Terça-feira, 18 de Dezembro de 2012

"Today’s challenges go beyond Keynes" by Jeffrey Sachs

"A different kind of growth path is required", says Jeffrey Sachs in FT.

 

Leia aqui NO FT:

 

Deixo-vos os parágrafos mais importantes:

a)

 

"The rebound of Keynesianism, led in the US by Lawrence Summers, the former Treasury secretary, Paul Krugman, the economist-columnist, and the US Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, came with the belief that short-term fiscal and monetary expansion was needed to offset the collapse of the housing market."

 

b)

 

"The crisis in southern Europe is often claimed by Keynesians to be the consequence of fiscal austerity, yet its primary cause is the countries’ and eurozone’s unresolved banking crises. And the UK’s slowdown has more to do with the eurozone crisis, declining North Sea oil and the inevitable contraction of the banking sector, than multiyear moves towards budget balance."

 

c)

 

"There are three more reasons to doubt the Keynesian view."

 

d)

"First, the fiscal expansion has been mostly in the form of temporary tax cuts and transfer payments. Much of these were probably saved, not spent.

 

Second, the zero interest rate policy has a risk not acknowledged by the Fed: the creation of another bubble. The Fed has failed to appreciate that the 2008 bubble was partly caused by its own easy liquidity policies in the preceding six years. Friedrich Hayek was prescient: a surge of excessive liquidity can misdirect investments that lead to boom followed by bust.

 

Third, our real challenge was not a great depression, as the Keynesians argued, but deep structural change. Keynesians persuaded Washington it was stimulus or bust. This was questionable. There was indeed a brief depression risk in late 2008 and early 2009, but it resulted from the panic after the abrupt and maladroit closure of Lehman Brothers."

 

e)

"When the world is changing rapidly and consequentially, as it is today, it is misguided to expect a “general theory”. As Hayek once recommended to Keynes, we instead need a tract for our times; one that responds to the new challenges posed by globalisation, climate change and information technology."

 

 

Leia ainda, relacionado com este tema,  o livro de Nicholas Wapshhott:

  • "Keynes/Hayek - O Confronto de definiu a Economia Moderna" ( D. Quixote).

 

Assista também à entrevista:

  •  "Ideias em Estante" a  José Silva Lopes ( "Acabem com esta crise já! de Paul Krugman é o livro em análise).
publicado por livrosemanias às 19:24
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